Data-driven corona

In this article, I will come across a fact highlighted in a previous blog. I often read posts on how this situation can adversely affect a person’s mental health (see One of the points mentioned here is “filtering information” resp. limit the time spent at information sources, for a simple reason: too many negative messages can make a person ruin the day at first. However, if he receives them daily, the body falls into a kind of gloomy mood, which is unfavorable both to the mental health of a person and to his performance and desire to go forward in his life. He is starting to stagnate and worry about what will happen tomorrow. The more information, the greater the chance of capturing the hoax – distorted to false information.

We meet numbers every day. Specifically, in this case, these are the numbers of positive cases, the total number of tests performed, the number of patients cured, the numbers of positive cases in districts, regions, economic numbers of economic downturns or deaths. How to choose from all that data, numbers and information what is relevant and not just what politicians write on social media or in the press.

Let’s take it apart. But comprehensively and with data.


Since the first confirmed case, 3102% more is being tested in Slovakia, compared to the maximum to date. With today’s testing numbers, it would be approx. 28 cases in 9492 tests. So inaccurate resp. it was unreasonable from the beginning. Now there are 704 cases out of 9492 tests. This means that when more is tested, the value of a certain indicator should also increase, but also that the relevance of the sample increases and a certain part of the potential threats in relation to the healthy population is captured to a certain increased extent. the negative.

Almost 704 new cases were added. They tested 9492 samples. 37 patients were cured.

What should one take from such information? There is no need to believe some announcements that say, “New record,” or, “Extinction is approaching.” It’s nonsense. There is no need to focus, just on the number of positive cases. This is different every day and is affected by various factors (number of tests, sample, …). Important data is that 37 patients were cured. It is a file that can be subtracted from positive cases. This result is further divided by the number of samples tested and a certain value is obtained which, when multiplied by 100%, gives a percentage increase which is more objective and which must be looked at in addition. Some time ago, those who returned from abroad and had to be quarantined and so on could also be deducted. Another important factor is the reproduction rate, which should be below 1 when reducing the trend of increasing cases.

Let’s take it as a joint victory when we get below 5%!

The WHO reports that the percentage that speaks of some “situation under control” is less than 5% of positive cases for COVID-19, at least in the last 2 weeks. In Slovakia, this value is currently equal to 8.2%, which means that the situation is not yet critical, but it is necessary to comply with government regulations or. be self-critical and behave in such a way that even though I have no symptoms and maybe I am negative as if I were positive. This is the only way to end this period as quickly as possible and slowly return to some normal.

Is tracking resp. contact retrieval currently effective?

Definitely not! Because this process is carried out “the old way”, especially by telephone. The error rate of this method of tracing is still very high and the efficiency of staff is insufficient, as the number of tracers and the number of contacts is in a critical disproportion. If the spread were similar to the Czech or Italian scenario, the searchers would collapse mentally and the whole system would gradually collapse. This is also one of the factors why various restrictive measures are being introduced. Of course, the main priority is to protect lives, especially those most at risk. The solution would be a software solution or. an application that is freely available and would work on the basis of location, identification of positive cases and other variables so that it is as relevant as possible and facilitates the work of responsible persons. It is naive to think that tracking the location of devices, ie users, is not practiced in the world. In every application, game, navigation, various data are processed and updated via the sim card, even when we turn on the internet. Some applications no longer want to work without specifying a location. So this is happening one way or another, and in this case it would be a positive thing in the field of GPS tracking, to make it easier to find contacts and the process was to some extent automated. However, this must be provided that this sensitive information is preserved in its integrity, security and conformity. They will not reach the incompetent and those who have access to them must have the strictest security checks.

Measures according to historical data and how does prediction work?

When I proposed a change of measures in my area, the answer was: “There are no declarations and regulations yet.” Let’s look at the core again – comprehensively. The statements are made on the basis of historical data. That is, according to those that are obvious and clear from previous days, weeks or months. Why don’t precautionary measures be taken and why they don’t come a week – two weeks earlier? People would consider it unnecessary scaring, misleading and would not be willing to follow what they were told. Honor exceptions! People need to be scared to work. But you need to know the limits of when they are scared and working and when they are so resistant that they stop listening. Not only do we have to scare, we also need to encourage people and explain to them why what is being introduced is important.

The prediction of the development of this health situation was very inaccurate. But it’s not the fault of analysts, but in this case the lack of data and the large critical unknown “people” and their tolerance for implementing measures. If these assumptions were made now, they would have a more accurate meaning.

Is there anything to praise?

Certainly yes! I have information that those responsible for health and contact finding in Orava work from morning to evening and fall asleep with the feeling that they did not have time to do everything and therefore did not identify all possible sources of dissemination. I believe that this is how it works in every part of Slovakia. Everyone, from hygienists, medical staff and rescue services to volunteers or temporary workers directly at the collection, must be respected and facilitated by the fact that when we are directly at the collection site, I do not hesitate or ask unnecessary questions and on the other hand in the country as such, I behave morally and conscientiously so that I am the least burdensome.

During the slow silence of the crown, work begins!

The period of elaboration of crisis plans in all areas and preparation of either the educational process in the online space or in the coordination of employees in the work environment, etc. should begin. It is important to know what to do in crisis situations and not to invent them on the go, because then there is a high probability of error. We need to call in experts and look at case studies and best practice approaches that have proven themselves in the world and adapt them to our conditions. There is no need to invent what is invented.

Conclusion and thoughts on it

The aim of this article was to inform readers not to believe everything they write and to think critically, rationally and, if possible, data. Emotions can do a lot of damage and may not be understood. Of course, those problems are much more complex and complicated, but here I have chosen only the part that I think is the most important and I have approached it with foresight.

  • I will not go on holiday abroad when our republic is in trouble.
  • I will not go on holiday abroad because I can bring home an unexpected gift.
  • I will not “rebel” in not wearing a veil properly, but I will behave prudently.
  • I will not shout at the other and make his day uncomfortable, because I do not know what he is going through.
  • I will try to be positive and help the people around me.

Team Accencis

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